Note: This is a draft posted early because I am traveling until late June and I keep waiting for things to slow down but…. They don’t. The latest concerning little step to Coup 2025:
Noem DHS secretary asks DoD for 20,000 nat guards for logistical support in deporting people.And, if it comes to it, if National Guard or regular military are called up in cities to provide "logistical" support, to make sure they do not detain or guard people, which they are not allowed to do because of the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878. Homeland Security has just asked the Department of Defense to call up 20,000 National Guard to help with immigration roundups in the cities, not at the border as has already happened (especially with Texas National Guard called up by the Governor of Texas). This is a new, and very bad, escalation. The Pentagon has yet to respond.
The US Military and Coup 2025 (5/19/25)
For regime change by coup to succeed, as in overthrowing the U.S. Constitutional order and replacing it with an absolute President for Life, several things have to happen. The Coup2025 Tracker lays them out specifically in terms of legal actions, street protests, and institutional acceptance and resistance. But perhaps the single most important element is control of the streets. For this to be assured, what the military does is crucial— either to drive anti-coup protesters off the streets, let them be, or even join them.
If Trump’s Regime is planning on a full coup against the Constitution, they are not even half way there in terms of preparing the military. While the replacement of a number of key Flag officers in the U.S. military is very concerning, as of this date, however, Trump and his Secretary of Defense have only fired 11 generals and admirals. These have included the Chief of the Joint Chiefs, and the commanders of the NSA, Coast Guard, US Navy and Air Force as well as 17 Inspector Generals (IGs), in particular the IGs for the Defense Department, Intelligence Agencies (CIA, NSA), and State Department.
The role of Coup 2025 organizers (perhaps “just-in-case”) in these firings is probably real, but it is complicated by other issues, especially the personal prejudices of the Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, a former soldier with alcohol and anger issues.
Hegseth would be a poor choice to lead the military side of a coup anyway. He probably would send a Signal message to his barber about it beforehand. Any possible coup’s chances are not helped by the current disaray of the Department of Defense. But his successor will almost certainly be more competent. How not?
Deploying the regular military in the U.S for domestic law enforcement or other combat operations (disaster relief is something else) is only legal when justified by invoking the Insurrection Act during rebellion or invasion. There is no provision in the U.S. Constitution or any other U.S. law for Martial Law, which is direct governance by the military. However, it has been implemented none-the-less in the U.S., for example in Hawaii during World War II. The Supreme Court later found it to be unconstitutional.
The Trump Administration has pushed at these limitations, by militarizing the border, bizarrely proclaiming that a 60ft wide strip of border hundreds of miles long is actually part of either Fort Bliss in Texas or Ft. Huachuca in Arizona, allowing active duty U.S. troops to patrol it and arrest illegal immigrants, aka “trespassers.” This gets around the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878 which limits regular (as in not National Guard) US military operations within the US unless there is a “military purpose” such as protecting military bases.
The actual April 11 White House Presidential Action was called the “Military Mission for sealing the Southern Border of the United States and Repelling Invasions,” Note the “Invasions” claim. Not just one apparently. So the border has been militarized again, as it was in first Trump administration.
As dangerous, unConstitutional and illegal as this is, it is not deploying regular US troops to build and staff concentration camps, arrest tens of thousands of people, deploy to cities to stop demonstrations and other operations to defend a coup.
All US military personnel take an oath to the US Constitution, not the President. Most take it seriously. Besides that, the military has an incredibly strong passion for unity. Leaving no soldier behind includes politically. So the military will want to act in a unified way. They might not, as is discussed below, but most of them will try and obey the Constitution. Which is interpreted by the Supreme Court. So what the court does is crucial.
If it supports a Trump suspension of the Constitution then Coup2025 will probably succeed, only for awhile to be sure but we can expect horrors.
If the court clearly rules against Trump, even if parts of the military, various police (including the INS, many Secret Service, some FBI) and some elected officials go along with the Coup2025, then democracy will prevail if the Resistance is brave, because the military will do the right thing.
If the court ruling is ambiguous the Resistance will make the difference, in the streets and mobilizing civil society. Especially important is reaching out to the military, our fellow citizens, to encourage them to defend what freedoms we have.
So now, what do we know? This rest of the analysis is in three parts:
1) How the military side of Coup2025 would be implemented through the Insurrection Act. 2) What might happen if the Supreme Court ruled against Trump on the Insurrection Act. And 3) The actual firings and proposed firings.
1) If the US Military Joined Coup 2025
If Trump ordered the military to step into direct operations in the United States (setting up camps and guarding them, arresting protesters, arresting immigrants on the border) under the color of the Insurrection Act, it would fall to the Secretary of Defense to coordinate the Pentagon’s response and directly order the relevant Flag Officers (4 star generals and equivalent admirals) to implement it.
The military mostly does not act by branches. Almost all actual military operations are under the control of various Joint Commands, and they are all commanded by the Joint Chief of Staff.
For legal military operations inside the United States,
Northern Command would be used. “Homeland Defense” is their remit, already including “Border Security” and “Humanitarian and and Disaster Relief.” Their headquarters is on Peterson SFB (Space Force Base) in Colorado. AKA Cheyenne Mountain. This is right near Colorado Springs, a center of rightwing sentiment in the military, especially at the Air Force Academy.
In consultations with other branches and the civilian side of the Department of Defense, General Gregory M. Cuillot and his staff would deploy various units to carry out the specific orders from President Trump, General Guillot is a four-star Air Force General who started out as a fighter pilot and quickly advanced to higher commands, including joint operations. His politics are unknown.
In the US military as a whole, it is Special Forces Command and it’s “operators” who are the most openly right wing. If private contractors are hired to run deportations, roundups and concentration camps then many will be former SEALS), Marine RECON, Army Rangers, and less prestigious commandos. All with old friends in the active Special Forces “community.”
2) What would happen if the Supreme Court blocked the Implementation of the Insurrection Act?
I am confident the vast majority of the U.S. military will follow their oaths and support the Constitution. However, there are two caveats.
First, some subunits, especially in Special Operations and perhaps in other places such as Cyber Command, might well try and carry out Trump’s orders. If this happens, it would be very hard for the rest of the military to fight them and kill them. If there is one value the U.S. Military holds above the Constitution, it is Unity. This will be a close call.
Second, of course Trump has his various Militias he can mobilize, and 1,000 of the most hard core and their leaders have been freed by him. Rightwing activists, clearly guilty of insurrection, assault on police, and even murder, have not only been found innocent or pardoned, but have been lauded as heroes. The similarities with the impunity Mussolini’s Black Shirts usually enjoyed is chilling.
They are a real threat to protesters and others, especially if allied with local police as sometimes are. But they are clearly no match even for State national guard units. Many municipal police units can outgun even the most well armed militia now. Militia, police, and even regular military have even been overwhelmed by massive mobilizations of unarmed civilians practicing nonviolent direct action.
More concerning is that Trump can expect actual support from most of the INS, and large parts of the FBI, Secret Service, DIA and CIA. They would be joined by the politicized military contractors, some led by open supporters of Coup2025. Many are already working closely with the INS operationally and Erik Prince has….
Internationally, they may soon be staffing check-points and administering food as an instrument of control in Gaza, building on years of contributing to the subjugation of the West Bank and Gaza.
The network of private security firms and for-profit prisons has been garnering massive contracts from the Trump administration. Blackwater’s successor, CACI, is particularly involved.
3) The actual firings and proposed firings, in order of importance:
— On May 5, Defense Secretary Hegseth announced the DoD would be getting rid of 20% of Flag Officers in all services and the National Guard and 10% of all National Guard Officers. On the face of it, this would be the perfect way to purge a large number of pro-Constitution officers, as President Jefferson balanced the U.S. military when he was elected, using Captain Lewis (later of Lewis and Clarke fame) to evaluate all serving officers and recommend firing all the incompetent ones and a few rabid Federalist supporters. But so far, it is not clear how the firings and retiring will be organized. It is true that the U.S. military is incredibly overstaffed at the highest ranks. So it remains to be seen if this purge will go beyond Hesgeth’s racist (if you aren’t white you don’t deserve your rank) and mysogenist (if you aren’t male you…) crusade against the horrors of diversity, equity and inclusion.
—Gen. CQ Brown, Jr. was fired as Chief of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Brown was appointed by Trump in his first term. But he certainly wasn’t Trump’s idea, in that first term Trump had a number former generals serve at high levels in his administration and they all grew to hate his guts. Brown, being Black and probably not coup-friendly and perhaps even woke (!!) was doomed from the moment Trump was sworn in.
He was replaced with General Dan Caine who has pledged “to die” for Trump. This is a dangerous appointment. Caine is a very political general in the worst possible way.
— The firing of General Timothy D. Haugh, the head of NSA, who also commands the military’s Cyber Command, and his top assistant is deeply troubling. Even Democrats complained!
For now he has been replaced with Army Lt. General William Hartman, who has risen to be interim head. But Trump may divide the NSA from CyberCommand and appoint more directly loyal people soon.
— Also concerning is the firing of all the top Judge Adjunct Generals (JAGs), the lawyers of the military.
Military’s legal branch. Hegseth has long hated legal limits on killing civilians and other actions military lawyers have often, mildly, opposed.
— Air Force Vice Chair was also fired. His replacement might be the “honey badger” admiral.
— The Firing of Coast Guard Commandant Admiral Linda Fagan was probably due to her suspicious gender and effective commitment to diversity and true meritocracy. But it could be important for a potential Coup2025. The Coast Guard is the world’s 12th most powerful Navy but it is not part of the Department of Defense. They are under the Department of Homeland Security, along with the INS, FBI, and other spoonfuls from the national security alphabet soup.
Deeply concerning, on April 4, the head of the NSA and of Cybercommand, a 4 star general, and his top assistant a civilian, were fired.
Noem DHS secretary asks DoD for 20,000 nat guards for logistical support in deporting people.And, if it comes to it, if National Guard or regular military are called up in cities to provide "logistical" support, to make sure they do not detain or guard people, which they are not allowed to do because of the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878. Homeland Security has just asked the Department of Defense to call up 20,000 National Guard to help with immigration roundups in the cities, not at the border as has already happened (especially with Texas National Guard called up by the Governor of Texas). This is a new, and very bad, escalation. The Pentagon has yet to respond.
The US Military and Coup 2025 (5/19/25)
For regime change by coup to succeed, as in overthrowing the U.S. Constitutional order and replacing it with an absolute President for Life, several things have to happen. The Coup2025 Tracker lays them out specifically in terms of legal actions, street protests, and institutional acceptance and resistance. But perhaps the single most important element is control of the streets. For this to be assured, what the military does is crucial— either to drive anti-coup protesters off the streets, let them be, or even join them.
If Trump’s Regime is planning on a full coup against the Constitution, they are not even half way there in terms of preparing the military. While the replacement of a number of key Flag officers in the U.S. military is very concerning, as of this date, however, Trump and his Secretary of Defense have only fired 11 generals and admirals. These have included the Chief of the Joint Chiefs, and the commanders of the NSA, Coast Guard, US Navy and Air Force as well as 17 Inspector Generals (IGs), in particular the IGs for the Defense Department, Intelligence Agencies (CIA, NSA), and State Department.
The role of Coup 2025 organizers (perhaps “just-in-case”) in these firings is probably real, but it is complicated by other issues, especially the personal prejudices of the Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, a former soldier with alcohol and anger issues.
Hegseth would be a poor choice to lead the military side of a coup anyway. He probably would send a Signal message to his barber about it beforehand. Any possible coup’s chances are not helped by the current disaray of the Department of Defense. But his successor will almost certainly be more competent. How not?
Deploying the regular military in the U.S for domestic law enforcement or other combat operations (disaster relief is something else) is only legal when justified by invoking the Insurrection Act during rebellion or invasion. There is no provision in the U.S. Constitution or any other U.S. law for Martial Law, which is direct governance by the military. However, it has been implemented none-the-less in the U.S., for example in Hawaii during World War II. The Supreme Court later found it to be unconstitutional.
The Trump Administration has pushed at these limitations, by militarizing the border, bizarrely proclaiming that a 60ft wide strip of border hundreds of miles long is actually part of either Fort Bliss in Texas or Ft. Huachuca in Arizona, allowing active duty U.S. troops to patrol it and arrest illegal immigrants, aka “trespassers.” This gets around the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878 which limits regular (as in not National Guard) US military operations within the US unless there is a “military purpose” such as protecting military bases.
The actual April 11 White House Presidential Action was called the “Military Mission for sealing the Southern Border of the United States and Repelling Invasions,” Note the “Invasions” claim. Not just one apparently. So the border has been militarized again, as it was in first Trump administration.
As dangerous, unConstitutional and illegal as this is, it is not deploying regular US troops to build and staff concentration camps, arrest tens of thousands of people, deploy to cities to stop demonstrations and other operations to defend a coup.
All US military personnel take an oath to the US Constitution, not the President. Most take it seriously. Besides that, the military has an incredibly strong passion for unity. Leaving no soldier behind includes politically. So the military will want to act in a unified way. They might not, as is discussed below, but most of them will try and obey the Constitution. Which is interpreted by the Supreme Court. So what the court does is crucial.
If it supports a Trump suspension of the Constitution then Coup2025 will probably succeed, only for awhile to be sure but we can expect horrors.
If the court clearly rules against Trump, even if parts of the military, various police (including the INS, many Secret Service, some FBI) and some elected officials go along with the Coup2025, then democracy will prevail if the Resistance is brave, because the military will do the right thing.
If the court ruling is ambiguous the Resistance will make the difference, in the streets and mobilizing civil society. Especially important is reaching out to the military, our fellow citizens, to encourage them to defend what freedoms we have.
So now, what do we know? This rest of the analysis is in three parts:
1) How the military side of Coup2025 would be implemented through the Insurrection Act. 2) What might happen if the Supreme Court ruled against Trump on the Insurrection Act. And 3) The actual firings and proposed firings.
1) If the US Military Joined Coup 2025
If Trump ordered the military to step into direct operations in the United States (setting up camps and guarding them, arresting protesters, arresting immigrants on the border) under the color of the Insurrection Act, it would fall to the Secretary of Defense to coordinate the Pentagon’s response and directly order the relevant Flag Officers (4 star generals and equivalent admirals) to implement it.
The military mostly does not act by branches. Almost all actual military operations are under the control of various Joint Commands, and they are all commanded by the Joint Chief of Staff.
For legal military operations inside the United States,
Northern Command would be used. “Homeland Defense” is their remit, already including “Border Security” and “Humanitarian and and Disaster Relief.” Their headquarters is on Peterson SFB (Space Force Base) in Colorado. AKA Cheyenne Mountain. This is right near Colorado Springs, a center of rightwing sentiment in the military, especially at the Air Force Academy.
In consultations with other branches and the civilian side of the Department of Defense, General Gregory M. Cuillot and his staff would deploy various units to carry out the specific orders from President Trump, General Guillot is a four-star Air Force General who started out as a fighter pilot and quickly advanced to higher commands, including joint operations. His politics are unknown.
In the US military as a whole, it is Special Forces Command and it’s “operators” who are the most openly right wing. If private contractors are hired to run deportations, roundups and concentration camps then many will be former SEALS), Marine RECON, Army Rangers, and less prestigious commandos. All with old friends in the active Special Forces “community.”
2) What would happen if the Supreme Court blocked the Implementation of the Insurrection Act?
I am confident the vast majority of the U.S. military will follow their oaths and support the Constitution. However, there are two caveats.
First, some subunits, especially in Special Operations and perhaps in other places such as Cyber Command, might well try and carry out Trump’s orders. If this happens, it would be very hard for the rest of the military to fight them and kill them. If there is one value the U.S. Military holds above the Constitution, it is Unity. This will be a close call.
Second, of course Trump has his various Militias he can mobilize, and 1,000 of the most hard core and their leaders have been freed by him. Rightwing activists, clearly guilty of insurrection, assault on police, and even murder, have not only been found innocent or pardoned, but have been lauded as heroes. The similarities with the impunity Mussolini’s Black Shirts usually enjoyed is chilling.
They are a real threat to protesters and others, especially if allied with local police as sometimes are. But they are clearly no match even for State national guard units. Many municipal police units can outgun even the most well armed militia now. Militia, police, and even regular military have even been overwhelmed by massive mobilizations of unarmed civilians practicing nonviolent direct action.
More concerning is that Trump can expect actual support from most of the INS, and large parts of the FBI, Secret Service, DIA and CIA. They would be joined by the politicized military contractors, some led by open supporters of Coup2025. Many are already working closely with the INS operationally and Erik Prince has….
Internationally, they may soon be staffing check-points and administering food as an instrument of control in Gaza, building on years of contributing to the subjugation of the West Bank and Gaza.
The network of private security firms and for-profit prisons has been garnering massive contracts from the Trump administration. Blackwater’s successor, CACI, is particularly involved.
3) The actual firings and proposed firings, in order of importance:
— On May 5, Defense Secretary Hegseth announced the DoD would be getting rid of 20% of Flag Officers in all services and the National Guard and 10% of all National Guard Officers. On the face of it, this would be the perfect way to purge a large number of pro-Constitution officers, as President Jefferson balanced the U.S. military when he was elected, using Captain Lewis (later of Lewis and Clarke fame) to evaluate all serving officers and recommend firing all the incompetent ones and a few rabid Federalist supporters. But so far, it is not clear how the firings and retiring will be organized. It is true that the U.S. military is incredibly overstaffed at the highest ranks. So it remains to be seen if this purge will go beyond Hesgeth’s racist (if you aren’t white you don’t deserve your rank) and mysogenist (if you aren’t male you…) crusade against the horrors of diversity, equity and inclusion.
—Gen. CQ Brown, Jr. was fired as Chief of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Brown was appointed by Trump in his first term. But he certainly wasn’t Trump’s idea, in that first term Trump had a number former generals serve at high levels in his administration and they all grew to hate his guts. Brown, being Black and probably not coup-friendly and perhaps even woke (!!) was doomed from the moment Trump was sworn in.
He was replaced with General Dan Caine who has pledged “to die” for Trump. This is a dangerous appointment. Caine is a very political general in the worst possible way.
— The firing of General Timothy D. Haugh, the head of NSA, who also commands the military’s Cyber Command, and his top assistant is deeply troubling. Even Democrats complained!
For now he has been replaced with Army Lt. General William Hartman, who has risen to be interim head. But Trump may divide the NSA from CyberCommand and appoint more directly loyal people soon.
— Also concerning is the firing of all the top Judge Adjunct Generals (JAGs), the lawyers of the military.
Military’s legal branch. Hegseth has long hated legal limits on killing civilians and other actions military lawyers have often, mildly, opposed.
— Air Force Vice Chair was also fired. His replacement might be the “honey badger” admiral.
— The Firing of Coast Guard Commandant Admiral Linda Fagan was probably due to her suspicious gender and effective commitment to diversity and true meritocracy. But it could be important for a potential Coup2025. The Coast Guard is the world’s 12th most powerful Navy but it is not part of the Department of Defense. They are under the Department of Homeland Security, along with the INS, FBI, and other spoonfuls from the national security alphabet soup.
Deeply concerning, on April 4, the head of the NSA and of Cybercommand, a 4 star general, and his top assistant a civilian, were fired.