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Coup 2025 Tracker UPDATES
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January 19, 2026 Update
Chances of attempted Coup: 100%
Chances of a successful Coup: 35%
Happy Martin Luther King Day.
Our Boiling Frogs Index has gone from “Almost relaxing” in January 2025 to “A bit too warm” when I first started this Tracker, to “Really, that is hot enough” into the Summer. In September of 2025 we reached: “Distinctly uncomfortable and a real chance of long-term health problems” which is where we remain.
I have been trying to update this tracker since the start of the year. Is the slow MAGA Coup that started last January with Trump taking office succeeding or failing? Every day there is conflicting evidence… The Economy continues to deteriorate--bad for the coup. Corporations (CBS is the latest) continue to submit to Trump, good for the coup. Trump continues to be haunted by Epstein, bad for the coup. Trump attacks American cities and foreign countries with impunity, good for the end of democracy. So it goes. It remains undecided. The Resistance grows but MAGA remains unified, despite the economy, Epstein, foreign military murders and adventures and Trump’s deepening mental decline.
And what do we make of Trump’s increasingly unstable behavior? In the long run it does not bode well for a Trump dictatorship. In the short run it can cause incalculable damage. Just today, in a letter to the Norwegian Prime Minister, Trump linked his failure to get a Nobel Peace Prize to his increasingly bellicose stance on Greenland. Is this narcissistic pettiness that is now threatening the very existence of NATO any way to serve the Empire? Well, yes it is, if it is the Russian Empire.
The surprisingly numerous voices declaring “Democracy in the United States is already Dead!!!” are clearly wrong. They have a very impoverished idea of what democracy is, and of how horrible a successful authoritarian regime can be. One brave mother shot dead is bad but it isn’t 20,000 gunned down in the streets in Iran. It isn’t tens of thousands massacred in Gaza. It isn’t even more thousands killed in brutal authoritarian wars waged by dictators and paid for by other dictators, from Myramar to the Ukraine to the Congo. Things will have to get far worse in the United States for the Slow Coup to triumph. They might…
My estimates are based on my years of reflection on current affairs and history. Some of it profoundly academic (Ph.D. and all), some as a working class street activist, and always to feed my hunger to know just what the fuck is going on and what should I do about it. And details, concrete knowledge, is crucial. It is always filtered by prejudice and power, but at its best it is a useful reflection of part of reality. It is called the news.
When I am asked if I want the bad news first, or the good news, I always ask for the bad news first, so…
The Bad news:
* There are still federal troops in the District of Columbia and in New Orleans and any day it seems in Minneapolis. Getting the military to obey Presidential orders— even if Constitutionally dubious—remains a major focus of those facilitating Coup 2025. So the purging of obstructive elements in the military continues, most recently with the firing of an admiral who objected to the murdering of people in small boats in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific, a clear War Crime. Ineffectual as it has proven to be so far, federalizing State troops to occupy Democratic cities, such as those sent to Portland, Oregon based on fantasies broadcast by Fox News showing old videos, remains a dangerous policy. Other policies remain concerning, especially the plan to create a rapid-deployment force from various State National Guards. Elite units such as this can be crafted to be very political and loyal to individuals, not Constitutional principles.
* Trump openly spreads racist lies and makes policies to criminalize resistance, such as his declaration that the belief and practice of antifascism is an organized terrorist conspiracy. He directly tells the military that they must prepare for “war within.” Hi demonization through obvious lies of Renee Good, clearly murdered by an ICE agent, is a very dangerous precedent. Especially as the Department of Justice denied local police access to the crime scene and other evidence, and then declared they would not investigate the killing at all. They are, however, investigating Good’s wife, the Mayor of Minneapolis, and the Governor of Minnesota.
* Trump continues to have some success imposing his will, even when illegal, in many ways. While his pathetic renaming of everything possible will easily be reversed, the submission of major corporations such as CBS to MAGA priorities is more problematic. Policies bought and paid for, such as unleashing AI development, destabilizing the financial sector with the deregulation of cryptocurrencies and other Ponzi schemes and trying to eliminate any restrictions on racism/woman-hating/pro-Nazi hate speech will eventually cost the economy, and therefore real people, dearly.
The Good news:
* Resistance to Trump in the streets continues to deepen and spread. Cities such as.
- Irrational economic decisions (such as the tariffs) inevitably have produced economic decline and a resulting loss of support for Trump.
- Trump is clearly in severe physical and mental decline. It manifests in many ways. No doubt it is helping drive his declining poll numbers. Trump will inevitably share even more bizarre fantasies, such as the news that he has authorized free Medbeds to everyone. This remarkable technology, derived from an alien spacecraft in Area 51, cures all aliments and offers possible immortality. Don’t hold your breath for yours to arrive courtesy of the great Donald Trump. His bizarre quest to conquer Greenland (which is already totally in the U.S. Empire) shows his fantasies can bleed into policy. While a shocking 9% of voters in the U.S. support using the military to seize Greenland, that is also about how many believe the Earth is flat.
- Trump continues to suffer numerous defeats in court, the most important of which is the Supreme Court supporting lower courts that challenged his nationalization of State national guard troops. This had directly led to Trump withdrawing troops in Los Angeles, Portland, and Chicago.
*More and more mainstream Republicans are rebelling against Trump. Most notably Indiana legislators refusing to support gerrymandering, 9 Montana State Senators allying with Democrats to pass numerous bills, and a half-dozen House Republicans joining with Democrats to force a number of bills to a vote and pass them. Dozens are bravely speaking out against war with Denmark and the rest of NATO! Wow.
* Coup 2025 attempts to bend the US military to their will has provoked substantial pushback. Ordering all the top officers of all the branches of service to leave their posts all over the global US empire to be lectured by President Trump and Secretary of Whatever Hegsgeth was not a great success. It is notable that the latest boat murders have not involved a second strike to kill survivors, another War Crime and a Crime Against Humanity. Now survivors are picked up or at least not murdered outright. Reports indicate many officers are seeking legal advice about what to do with illegal orders from Trump/Hegsgeth.
The Mixed news:
- Trumps growing enthusiasm for killing people with the U.S. military is unlikely to increase his popularity or, in the long run, his power. Much of his base is actively opposed to military interventions. The majority of the rest of the country is even more anti-war. So the chances of war with Iran, Columbia, Cuba, Mexico, Denmark… or even Venezuela, remain low. The boat attacks (over 100 murdered), the Caracas kidnapping (NOT an invasion or an occupation) and the CIA drone attack on Venezuelan soil, the weird strike in Nigeria, and even the possible use of US troops in Gaza, all show the limits of Trump’s military reach as much as his power.
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September 22, 2025
Happy Equinox!!! The great turnings continue, even if our little world wobbles dangerously. Along with updating the 2025 Coup Tracker I’ve implemented a new scale to judge how bad it is going: The Boiling Frogs Index.
We have gone from “Almost relaxing” in January 2025 to “A bit too warm” when I first started this Tracker, to “Really, that is hot enough” into the Summer. We are now at, “Distinctly uncomfortable and a real chance of long-term health problems.” If we make it to 2026 without having democracy boil to death, let’s celebrate!
When Jimmy Kimmel was taken off the air, cries of doom and defeat resounded through the liberal media and semi-activists in the Party of the Couch. But, now he is back.
Spanish anarchists have a saying, “All our greatest victories were really our greatest defeats; all our greatest defeats were actually our greatest victories.” This has many meanings…sometimes just surviving is the greatest victory of all, sometimes dying for the cause is. Sometimes, repression breeds resistance. This has been the case with many of Trump’s victories in his second term.
It does seem that the Coup 2025 is advancing, but much more slowly than many observers claim. It is still very much up-in-the-air. Supreme Court rulings remain the deciding factor in most scenarios. If the 2026 elections are fair, the Democrats will take the House, and the greatest threat will be past, but not over.
Context:
This is not “Trump’s” Coup, it is bigger than that. If Trump was gone, the 2025 Coup attempt would continue. Which means, valuable as he is, if he becomes too much of a liability then Trump will have to be neutralized—Martyred, Reaganized (sidelined and humored) or 25th Amendmented (replaced with Vance by his cabinet).
In June of 2017, I wrote an article for the Daily Kos called Is a Trump Coup Possible? where I concluded it was, but was unlikely. That is because my Trump Coup Scorecard showed that along with other obstacles Trump faced (such as a fundamental incoherence), even within the 2016 Trump Administration there were many high officials, especially retired military, who would not back a coup. This is no longer the case. There is a movement for a coup and it has focus (Plan 2025) and control of the Federal government.
There are three key issues that will determine if the 2025 Coup succeeds:
1) The Supreme Court. The military will look to the Supreme Court for deciding if Trump Regime orders are Constitutional or not. While Chief Justice Roberts claims he wants to keep its power, he may decide the way to do that is by bending the knee to the MAGA coup. But the Court could put forward ambiguous rulings that make the military have make key judgements. Then things will get very complicated.
2) The Resistance. While many institutions and groups have already submitted to the Coup—corporations, law firms, Columbia University, corporate Democrats, Red States, some bureaucrats—many others are resisting. And there is growing resistance in the streets. The stronger the resistance in the streets and by institutions of all types, the more likely it is that the coup will fail.
3) The Economy. If the economy gets bad enough, Trump Regime support will collapse even among many of the rich. But not among the true believers in ending Democracy, such as the bazillionaires to-big-to-fail (Musk, Ellison, Luckey, Gates, Thiel, Bezos, Zuckerberg), the QAnon nexus, and the hard right of MAGA, which does include much of the GOP elite and at least half the Republican base.
April 23 update of Context: Right now, in my opinion, it seems Coup2025 is a bit stalled--increasing court resistance, consistent mass protests, declining economy thanks to weird policies. There is no reason to think the forces behind the coup (Project 2025 is the tip of the spear, Trump is just their best tool at this point) have given up. But we have some breathing space unless they decide their goal is receding so they create a Reichstag Fire type event or one falls in their lap.
September 22 update of Context: The Kirk killing shows how ready the Coup 2025 team is to weaponize anything they possibly can. That said, the Kimmel defeat and many defeats in courts show the coup is far from a done deal. The economy, opinion polls, and by elections show Trump’s support is very weak and declining slowly. Free speech turns out to be popular. Releasing Epstein information remains popular. Economic reality bites back hard. Mobilizations continue from the local to the global.
Key Future Dates
October 18, 2025. Next round of No Kings national protests.
November 4, 2025. New York City Elections. If victory for a Moslem social democrat is a clear defeat for Trump. And an opening to directly attack the most important city in the country,
November 3, 2026. Midterm elections. Democrats will probably regain control of the House of Representatives, but not the Senate. If fair elections are held. There will also be 36 gubernatorial elections, and thousands of other offices up for grabs.
Since Trump’s election, Democrats have been polling anywhere from 10 to 20 percentage points ahead of Kamala Harris in 2024. Most recently on September 24, Adelita Grijalva won her father’s former seat with a 12% improvement on 2024. She also represents the final vote needed to force the discharge of the Epstein files controlled by the DOJ, making them public.
Benchmarks
Bad Benchmarks: Coup Progresses.
Good Benchmarks: Coup Weakened.
(Only when a Benchmark is fully met is it colored in.)
- January 20. Mexican cartels labeled “terrorists” by Trump and/or FBI.
- March 9. Trump Administration Begins Mass Warrentless Operations Under Alien & Sedition Act.
- March 9. Individuals labeled terrorists for their Free Speech arrested and/or deported.
- March 15. Trump invokes Alien and Sedition Act of 1798.
The Brennan Center defines the rarely used law this way: "The Alien Enemies Act of 1798 is a wartime authority that allows the president to detain or deport the natives and citizens of an enemy nation. The law permits the president to target these immigrants without a hearing and based only on their country of birth or citizenship."
Fun fact, Trump now says he didn’t actually sign it! WTF?
- March. Lower Courts Block Key Parts of the Coup.
* April 1, 2025. Supreme Court seat election in Wisconsin determined the state court would not go MAGA despite Musk promising $100 to everyone who promises to vote for the MAGA candidate. Certainly illegal (but unlikely to be punished), and he probably won’t pay out to everyone, but he did the same for the 2024 Presidential election and got away with it, so why not?
April 5, 2025. Mass protests nationwide and in Washington D.C. supported by multiple national and local groups. The first real test of Resistance in the streets. Turned out 3 to 5 million.
April 20th, 2025. Trump has asked officials in his administration to make a recommendation on implementing the Insurrection Act because illegal immigration represents a national security threat. Some people are predicting he will act on April 20, and order US troops to the border, to start setting up concentration camps, and to confront the inevitable demonstrations in the cities. Fun fact, April 20th is also Hitler’s birthday and a major holiday for out fascists! Just a coincidence I am sure. Didn’t Happen.
* May 2
A Federal Court in Texas rules against the Trump Administration in the Alien Enemies Act case.
* May 7
Trump Administration has lost 93% of cases so far.
* May 13
Even Trump appointed judges and other conservative jurists are rejecting the argument that we are now “post-Constitution.”
- March 15. Trump launches air and/or sea strikes abroad.
May 6. US stops bombing Yemen.
- Trump Regime directly defies important court order(s).
Until 3/16/25, when faced with clear court orders the Trump administration obeyed the courts, even if subverting the rulings at the same time, as with obeying the injunction against putting Trans women into the men’s sections of Federal prisons for the 3 plaintiffs, but moving many more Trans inmates not named in the suit.
But on March 16 Trump’s INS and Dept. of Justice started directly defying court injunctions. For example, in trying to deport the Columbia student activist with a Green Card and the case of the Yale Transplant surgeon deported illegally despite a judge’s order.
Still, the Trump Regime has not openly broken with the judicial system as of 4/23/25. So they lie about what they did and appeal to the Supreme Court to shut down the lower court resistance, as Trump did on March 21.
* March 20. Trump Administration decides it doesn’t need warrants to search for “dangerous” aliens under the Alien and Sedition act.
- April 5. Protests against Trump around the U.S. that total 3-5 million. The largest protests during the first Trump Administration were actually on the day after his inauguration, January 21, 2017: 500,000 at the Women’s March in D.C. and 2-4 million at other demos around the country (with another 2 million people protesting abroad). If the 2025 Coup is to be stopped, demonstrations must grow in size, not decline.
* April 7. The Supreme Court allows Trump’s invocation of the Alien and Sedition Act to stand. But does insist on due process (case by case) for those deported, so not an unqualified victory for Trump.
* April 19. Mass protests continue.
- April 20. Secretary of Defense Hegseth and Homeland Security Secretary Noem recommend against Presidential invocation of Insurrection Act. Specifically, they say. Situation on border, focus of Trump’s charge.
* April. National Labor and/or civil society groups prepare for a general strike if Trump acts UnConstitutionally, such as defying the Supreme Court.
- May 12. Losing on the Alien and Sedition act in court, Stephen Miller, the White House manager of Coup 2025 has set a new target: The “privilege” of habeas corpus.
- June 10. Trump sends 700 Marines and 2,000 National Guard to Los Angeles.
* July 15. After failing to release any new evidence as promised, some of the MAGA grassroots turns on Trump and his minions. The controversy fails to go away, despite increasingly desperate attempts to distract the public from it.
* July 17. Good Trouble protests at over 1,600 cities and towns.
* August 12. Trump sends 800 National Guard to Washington, DC, with lots of other Feds.
* September 4. Trump orders the murder of 11 foreign nationals in international waters on the pretext they are “terrorists” in a drug gang. Even if true, it is a War Crime and a Crime Against Humanity to kill people with multiple attacks, who are no threat, retreating, unarmed, and with no warning.
* September 8. The use of open racial profiling by ICE and other Trump enforcement agents is approved by the US Supreme Court. As
Kilgore, Ed (2025) “Supreme Court Green-lights Ethnic Profiling by ICE,” explains in New York Magazine.
Also a bad sign for when the Supreme Court is faced with Trump claiming absolute power.
* September 10. The Charlie Kirk assassination becomes a pretext for Trump and many of his key staffers and supporters to call outright for the persecution of leftists and even Democrats, and for the full suppression of any speech critical of the now sainted anti-democracy, anti-woman, anti-sexual choice, anti-semite, racist rightwing influencer.
* September 16. Trump sends Troops to Memphis.
- September 15. Trump orders another murderous attack on a boat from Venezuela, this one within its waters. The US military complies, shamefully. Three or more die.
- September 18. Jimmy Kimmel forced off air.
- September 22. Antifa “designated” “Terrorist Organization” by Trump. But then, antifa is a position, not an organization. Not. At. All. Does this mean he can order the U.S. Military to attack its members in International Waters without warning or a chance to surrender and gun down the survivors, all based on secret intelligence? Why the fuck not?
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The Future?
- The Supreme Court validates Trump invoking the Insurrection Act of 1807.
- The Supreme Court invalidates Trump’s invocation of the Insurrection Act of 1807.
- Supreme Court blocks Trump’s invocation of the Alien and Sedition Act, or upholds a lower court’s block.
- US Marshals, following Trump’s orders, refuse to enforce an important court order. While courts can theoretically appoint people to enforce their orders if the normal authorities refuse, it seems unlikely.
- Judge blocking illegal Trump orders is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives.
* Judge who rules against Coup 2025 assassinated. Threats against judges have gone up over 300% since Trump took office.
- US military purged to make way for coup.
- Judge blocking illegal Trump orders is acquitted by the U.S. Senate.
- Trump militarily supports Israeli attack on Iran.
- Trump sends troop abroad.
- Trump Regime establishes mass detention facilities.
- US Inflation hits 5%. (It was 4.7 in 2021, 8.0 in 2022, 4.1 in 2023 and 2.9 in 2024).
- Dow drops to 30,000. It was at 45,000 when Trump’s second term started. This would be a decline of 33%.
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declines for a quarter.
- Recession. GDP declines for two consecutive quarters.
- Trump invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807. It seems increasingly likely. It certainly is the plan, but now two proposed dates for doing so by the coup2025 plotters have gone by without action: January 6 and April 20.
- Antifa, BLM or Pro-Palestine activist groups labeled “terrorist” by Trump White House and/or FBI. In the works.
- “Freedom”/Feudal Cities Approved
* Midterm elections (November 2026) cancelled or postponed. Coup complete.
Cool Vocabulary:
25th Amendmented: Section 4 of the 25th Amendment states the Vice-President can legally remove a President they find defective, with majority support from the Cabinet or another group Congress designates by law.
Accelerationism: The theory popular on both the extreme Right and Left, that claims that things need to get much worse for them to get better. In the case of the 2025 Coup, the chaos of DOGE and other actions by the Trump Administration are designed to so disrupt society that an authoritarian government, short on LAW but high on ORDER, can be implemented.
Coup: “Blow” or “strike” in French. No, not that kind of blow! There are many kinds of coups… coup de main, coup de grace…
We are worried here about coup d’états, coups aimed at state power. See also soft coup and self-coup.
Martial Law: Fun fact! There is no provision in the US Constitution or any other U.S. law for Martial Law, which is direct governance by the military. However, it has been implemented none-the-less in the U.S., for example in Hawaii during World War II. The Supreme Court later found it to be unconstitutional.
Martyred: False flag assassination.
Reaganzied: As the 40th President was treated most of his second term when his mind was gone…feted, tolerated, watered regularly.
Trump Watch Sites
Democracy Collaborative mega tracking of Trump site. You can sign up for their newsletter.
Well cited and updated website from the Revolving Door Project that tracks Coup 2025/Trump refusing to follow court orders.
From the admirable Lawfare site, a tracker of all Trump Administration Litigation.
A general tracker of information from and about the Trump Regime, by the UC San Diego Library.
One of the many sites tracking Trump’s Executive Actions being run by law firms. They are trying to stay up-to-date.
Ongoing protests are being tracked by the Crowd Counting Consortium.